Preliminary data on visitor arrivals from the State’s Department of Business and Economic Development and Tourism show a
dramatic and ominous decline in tourism numbers since the U.S. war on Iraq. The decline in visitors from Japan is most
dramatic, dropping by an average of 34 percent since March 19, 2003 when the U.S. began to bomb Iraq.

Domestic arrivals from the Mainland increased by a strong 10.1 percent in April, but fell to 2.9 percent in May and again fell to 2.3 percent in the first half of June 2003. The weak increases in domestic arrivals were not enough to offset the sharp decline of Japanese visitors and accounts for the overall negative numbers in visitor arrivals. The data compares 2003 arrivals to the same period last year in 2002 but does not include visitors from Canada.

Total visitor arrivals to Hawaii dropped by only -0.2 percent in April, but the slide downward hits -5.8 percent in May, and then plummets to -13.2 percent for June.

The actual impact of the war on Iraq varied widely from island to island. The tourism industry on Oahu and the Big Island were the hardest hit, while Kauai and Maui actually saw some increases in tourism.

Island-by-island data for May and June was only available for domestic visitors, but some estimates can be made from the
partial data. Domestic arrivals for Oahu and the Big Island were virtually flat, but the sharp decline in Japanese visitors would
have hit Waikiki hard as some 41 percent of Oahu’s visitors are from Japan. About 19 percent of the Big Island’s visitors
are from Japan, so that island would also have seen an overall drop in tourism.

On the other hand, Kauai and Maui had overall increases in visitor arrivals. These islands had large increases in domestic visitors which more than made up for the drop in Japanese visitors.

The chart below shows the percentage change in visitor arrivals from January 1, 2003 to June 15, 2003 compared to the same period in 2002. The data shows a dramatic drop in Japanese visitors (the bars), which in turn pulls down the overall tourism numbers(the lines).