The University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO) collects and analyzes economic data for the State of Hawaii. The following is their latest forecast that was published on March 5, 2021. A vast majority of this information bodes well for our brothers and sisters in the tourism industry.
Although there are still so many unknowns that can change quickly when it comes to COVID, ILWU Local 142, your Union, will continue to be cognizant of updates like these to best serve the membership and their needs.
Hawaii is struggling to emerge from the COVID-19 downturn, but the recovery is poised to accelerate.
Falling virus counts and vaccination progress set the stage for a strengthening of tourism and the broader economy
• US economic recovery stalled out late in the year as COVID-19 cases surged, but the economy is poised for a robust rebound as vaccination becomes widespread. The largest federal fiscal support on record and an accommodative Federal Reserve continue to be essential supports. Abroad, prospects for rich countries—who have locked up most of the world’s vaccine this year—are much better than for developing countries. For all countries, the speed of vaccination relative to contagious new COVID-19 variants will be key in recovery.
• Hawaii has managed the COVID-19 pandemic better than many, if not all, other states. This reflects Hawaii’s ability to almost completely shut itself off in the early stages of the pandemic, but we were also successful in tamping down a summer surge. After a holiday pickup, virus numbers have trended downward to their lowest level since July. Hawaii is also among the states furthest along in vaccination, priming the economy for renewed growth.
• Hawaii’s Safe Travels program has allowed the visitor industry to make a partial recovery, while keeping COVID-19 cases at bay. But visitor numbers remain far below pre-pandemic levels.
As case counts fall and vaccination rates rise, US tourism will pick up speed as we approach the summer and fall months. International markets will lag. In our baseline forecast, arrivals recover half their pandemic losses by July, and visitor spending recovers nearly 70% of its losses by year end. Full recovery is still several years out.
• There remains an exceptional level of uncertainty about the path forward, which will depend on COVID-19 control, an end to social distancing, the extent of business failures, and the travel and spending response of consumers. In an optimistic scenario, broad vaccine coverage by summer in the US and major international markets, and a spending surge driven by fiscal stimulus and pent-up demand, would fuel a more-robust tourism and local recovery. Slower-thanexpected vaccination progress and resurgent case counts could lead to poorer recovery progress. Business failures and damage to employment prospects could weigh more heavily on the economy. In such a pessimistic scenario, overall economic recovery would be more delayed and much less robust. The University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO) collects and analyzes economic data for the State of Hawaii. The following is their latest forecast that was published on March 5, 2021. A vast majority of this information bodes well for our brothers and sisters in the tourism industry. Although there are still so many unknowns that can change quickly when it comes to COVID, ILWU Local 142, your Union, will continue to be cognizant of updates like these to best serve the membership and their needs.
Editor’s note: This has been edited for length. For the full report, please visit https://uhero.hawaii.edu/
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COVID-19 Vaccine FAQs
As you read in the data above, increasing vaccination rates helps the rate at which our economy recovers as a whole. In addition, the more people that get vaccinated, the closer we get to putting a stop to this pandemic. The following are answers to frequently asked questions using information from Kaiser Permanente. For direct links to Kaiser’s sources, in addition to information from the CDC (Centers for Disease Prevention and Control), please visit our website at https://www.ilwulocal142.org.
• How do vaccines work?
When you get a vaccine, your body will produce antibodies against that disease. Antibodies are proteins produced naturally by your immune system to fi ght disease. Your body will then be able to recognize and fi ght the disease if you’re ever exposed to it later. This can signifi - cantly lower the impact of a disease or prevent you from catching it.
• Is the COVID-19 vaccine safe and effective?
Yes. The COVID-19 vaccine went through rigorous clinical trials to prove it’s safe and effective to use. The clinical trials included people 16+ of all genders, races, and ethnicities. The vaccine was found to be effective and safe for all participants.
• Why should I get vaccinated?
Vaccines are a safe way to prevent disease and save lives. Plus, they can protect you against a disease for a year, decades, or even a lifetime -- depending on the specifi c disease. That’s what makes vaccines so powerful. Rather than treating a disease after you get it, vaccines prevent you from getting sick in the fi rst place.
• Can a COVID-19 vaccine make me sick with COVID-19?
No. None of the COVID-19 vaccines contain the live virus that causes COVID-19, so a COVID-19 vaccine cannot make you sick with it.
• What are the potential side effects?
You may experience minor side effects, which are temporary and expected. It’s a normal sign that your body is building immunity to the virus. These may include soreness at the injection site, fatigue, fever, muscle aches, headache, and chills. They usually last for just a few days after you get the vaccine. Severe allergic reactions can happen, but they are very rare.
• Is there a cost for a COVID-19 vaccine?
No. You should not be charged anything for a COVID-19 vaccination no matter where you get it. In fact, you should be suspicious of any entity that wants to charge you for a vaccine. Vaccine doses were purchased by taxpayer dollars and are required by the federal government to be given at no cost.